abstract in this paper an attempt is made to determine the most suitable agricultural commodities to be adopted for establishing a futures market in iran. two different approaches are adopted: the first involves identifying factors that contribute significantly to the success or failure of existing agricultural commodities futures contracts in established futures markets. the second involves si...

Endogenous variables in structural models of agricultural commodity markets are typically treated as stationary. Yet, tests for unit roots have rather frequently implied that commodity prices are not stationary. This seeming inconsistency is investigated by focusing on alternative specifications of unit root tests. We apply various specifications to Illinois farm prices of corn, soybeans, barro...

Spatial interaction models are frequently used to predict and explain interregional commodity flows. Studies suggest that the effects of spatial structure significantly influence spatial interaction models, often resulting in model misspecification. Competing destinations and intervening opportunities have been used to mitigate this issue. Some recent studies also show that the effects of spati...

Regular consumer demand systems almost invariably employ specifications that involve common functional forms in all equations. When applications involve crosssectional data it is often the case that demographic effects are important. However it is plausible that demographic effects are commodity-specific. In this case, there may be a loss of efficiency if a common functional form across commodi...

• Commodity price effect is non-uniform and changes over time. Diverse sectoral commodity effects are robust to alternative specifications. affected by crisis third-country exchange rates. The empirical results challenge the assumption of stable effects. Using quarterly data on four commodity-exporting countries, we examine explanatory power real prices predict effective rates, paying particula...

FOREWORD This study analyzes U.S. consumer budget allocations among 11 agg1 egate commodity groups for the period 1948-78. Also budget allocations among four food groups are analyzed for this same period. Several alternative model specifications are analyzed. Emphasis is given to the Deaton-Muellbauer (1980a) "almost ideal demand system." A dynamic version of their model is developed and quanti...

the aim of this study is to explore the feasibility of setting up a commodities futures market in iran. specifications for the margin requirements, daily price movement limits, the length of expiration intervals, tick sizes and contract size of various potential future contracts are hereby examined. saffron, pistachio and rice emerge as the three suitable iranian agricultural commodities. a new...

In this paper, we seek to produce forecasts of commodity price movements that can systematically improve on naïve statistical benchmarks. We revisit how well changes in commodity currencies perform as potential efficient predictors of commodity prices, a view emphasized in the recent literature. In addition, we consider different types of factor-augmented models that use information from a larg...

We propose a State-Space Model (SSM) for commodity prices that combines the competitive storage model with stochastic trend. This approach fits into economic rationality of decisions and adds to previous deterministic trend specifications model. For Bayesian posterior analysis SSM, which is nonlinear in latent states, we used Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm based on particle marginal Metropo...

Mobile phone has become a common commodity and usually the most purchased item. Thousands of types mobiles are released every year with new features specification designs. So real question is prediction that what price mobile to estimate within market for optimal marketing successful launch product. Price major factor development any product its sustainability in market. prices also impact popu...