If you have regular occasion to fill your car’s tank with gas, you know that the price of gasoline has recently been both high and volatile a consequence, for the most part, of similar movements in the price of crude oil. The weekly average price for a barrel of West Texas intermediate, a standard grade of crude oil, hovered around $30 during the second half of 2003 but began to rise around the...

a r t i c l e i n f o JEL classifications: C51 N70 Keywords: Crude oil price volatility GARCH Covariates Modified dummy variables OPEC announcements WTI crude oil Several times a year, OPEC hosts conferences among its members to agree on further oil production policies. Prior to OPEC conferences, there is usually rampant speculation about which decision concerning world oil production levels (n...

We propose a new time series model aimed at forecasting crude oil prices. The proposed specification is an unobserved components model with an asymmetric cyclical component. The asymmetric cycle is defined as a sine-cosine wave where the frequency of the cycle depends on past oil price observations. We show that oil price forecasts improve significantly when this asymmetry is explicitly modelled.

This paper analyzes the response of international oil producers to demand-induced changes in the real price of oil during 1975–2011. The goal is to disentangle fluctuations in OPEC and non-OPEC production and to derive consistent estimates of the short-run price elasticity of crude oil supply at the country level. I find that oil producers hardly respond to demand shocks within the same month, ...

Crude oil is the mixture of petroleum liquids and gases that extracted from ground by wells. It an important source fuel used in production several products. Given role price crude plays, it becomes extremely for managers to predict future while making operational decisions such as: when purchase material, how much produce what modes transportation use. The goal this paper develop a forecasting...

The Hubbert model assumes that the worldwide production of crude oil will follow a bell-shaped curve. Oil prices are expected to increase, or even to spike up, at or after the production peak. However, the Hubbert model provides no description of price trends. We also lack historical data that can be used as a guide, since so far there have been no cases of a complete, worldwide depletion of a ...