نتایج جستجو برای: crude oil price gdp gmdh
تعداد نتایج: 263281 فیلتر نتایج به سال:
The main purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between Iran’s heavy crude oil price returns and volatility dependence using the Copula-based quantile model (CQM). CQM is an efficient tool for analyzing nonlinear time series models as it has no need for initial assumptions. We use monthly data from January 1990 to December 2019. We use the Hadrick-Prescott filter to calculate...
We use high-frequency intra-day realized volatility to evaluate the relative forecasting performance of several models for the volatility of crude oil daily spot returns. Our objective is to evaluate the predictive ability of time-invariant and Markov switching GARCH models over different horizons. Using Carasco, Hu and Ploberger (2014) test for regime switching in the mean and variance of the ...
The paper estimates the effect of oil price fluctuations on GDP growth, using linear and nonlinear VAR models with data from 12 countries. It reports strong significance for the existence of non-linear moderator effects caused by a decline in the oil-to-energy share, which weakens the causal effect of oil prices on economic growth. A consideration of the relationship of oil prices and GDP over ...
The crude oil price fluctuation investigation is to explore the impact of shocks on countries’ economic growth. Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) was applied and variance decomposition analyze GDP growth due shock price. Besides, nine countries' data were collected from 1990 third quarter 2020. impacted by in 5 years respectively: 44.98%; 40.03%; 31.06%; 32.27%; 33.21%; 36.03%; 27.79%; 15.35%; ...
Oil is the lifeblood of the industrial economy, oil prices are affected by many factors. China is a major industrial country, changes in the price of oil will affect many aspects of economic development, and therefore the price of crude oil research is extremely important. In this paper, monthly average prices of crude oil in Daqing from January 2000 to December 2010 are utilized to do the rese...
We examine the effect of oil price fluctuations on democratic institutions over the 1960-2007 period. We also exploit the very persistent response of income to oil price fluctuations to study the effect of persistent (oil price-driven) income shocks on democracy. Our results indicate that countries with greater net oil exports over GDP see improvements in democratic institutions following uptur...
In this paper, the linkages between oil price changes, macroeconomic fluctuations and fragility of banks in Iran have been examined by taking account of some macroeconomic variables as well as bank-level variables of 11 Iranian banks from 1384 to 1396. For the empirical investigation, dynamic panel data models have been used. The models have been estimated by Generalized Method of Moments and P...
In this research to show how 14 variables affect inflation in period 1974-2007, Bayesian model averaging and weighted average least square methods has been used. And also by using Vselect program optimal model for every independent variable has been identified. Results show that price index growth of imported goods is the main factor for inflation in Iran economic. In ranking this 14 factors –t...
The characteristics of crude oil and the factors affecting the price of this energy carrier have caused its price forecast to always be considered by researchers, oil market activists, governments and policy makers. Since the price of crude oil is affected by many factors, therefore, continuous studies should be done in this way so that the estimates made over time, the results are more accurat...
Crude oil pricing is commonly expressed as a formula referenced to Brent or WTI crude oil. The final price of these two qualities and the spread between WTI and Brent can drive the decision when the purchase of a crude oil cargo is evaluated. A crude oil price-forecasting model is presented. It is based on past data, inventory level and volatility index and it is derived with a neuro fuzzy infe...
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