in searching a market-neutral arbitrage strategy in forex market, we took a portfolio of three major currency pairs, eur-usd, usd-jpy, and eur-jpy. there are eight approaches, different cases of short and long positions; for example buying 1st and selling two others, etc. historical daily fx rates were gathered since january 1990 until february 2011. monthly covariances between daily growth rat...

With considering a ‘triangle of three major currency pairs’, there is a tiny difference between multiplication of exchange rate for the first two currency pairs and the third. To discover whether this little difference can lead to a neutral arbitrage or not, I took portfolios of 35 baskets of three major currency pairs(combinations of all 7 major currencies). There are eight approaches (differe...

with considering a ‘triangle of three major currency pairs’, there is a tiny difference between multiplication of exchange rate for the first two currency pairs and the third. to discover whether this little difference can lead to a neutral arbitrage or not, i took portfolios of 35 baskets of three major currency pairs(combinations of all 7 major currencies). there are eight approaches (differe...

The article is devoted to analysis of currency quotes behavior on the currency market by defining dynamic changes over time. The main tool of fractal analysis is the Hurst under the hypothesis of fractal market. For 17 major currency pairs on closing prices and the prices maximum-minimum the Hurst index is calculated by formula for the adjusted R/S analysis. Values at the currency markets of di...

We have developed a new financial indicator – called the Interest Rate Differential Adjusted for Volatility (IRDAV) measure – to assist investors in currency markets. On a monthly basis, we rank currency pairs according to this measure and generate a basket of pairs with the highest IRDAV values. Under positive market conditions, an IRDAV based investment strategy (buying a currency with high i...

High-frequency financial data of the foreign exchange market (EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/NOK, EUR/SEK, EUR/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, USD/NOK, and USD/SEK) are analyzed by utilizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence between two normalized spectrograms of the tick frequency and the generalized Jensen-Shannon divergence among them. The temporal structure variations of the similari...

Ritschl and Wolf (2003) rely on an unusual variable for currency unions in their empirical analysis. In particular, their data set indicates that all the country-pairs listed below were considered to be in currency unions in the interwar period. Thus, according to Ritschl and Wolf, Austria and Bulgaria were in a currency union. Indeed, Austria was also in currency union with Czechoslovakia, Den...

1 We construct a statistical model for the term-structure of implied volatilities of currency options based on daily historical data for 13 currency pairs over a 19-month period. We examine the joint evolution of 1 month, 2 month, 3 month, 6 month and 1 year at-the-money (50) options in all the currency pairs. We show that there exist three uncorrelated state variables (principal components) wh...

Due to the prospects for financial gain, forex is always attractive many people. However, because market analysis not simple, a computer needed assist in creating predictions using features that are understandable This study employs Multilinear Regression technique identify these kinds of features. The and prediction target have very strong correlation. With low RMSE high R square, quality quit...

This paper focuses on the theory of uncovered interest rate parity and whether interest-rate differentials have resulted in the higher interest rate currency depreciating over time. Previous literature has empirically rejected the theory indicating that higher interest rate currencies have actually appreciated relative to lower interest rate currencies. In this paper, uncovered interest rate pa...