the efficiency of three statistical models, ahp surface-weighted density bivariate (semi-quantitative models), stepwise multivariate regression and logistic multivariate regression models were compared in chehel-chai watershed in golestan province, iran. in current study the hazard map was prepared according to the top model of landslide hazard map. chehel-chai watershed is located as one of go...

Recent literature has investigated the risk aggregation of a portfolio X = (Xi)1≤i≤n under the sole assumption that the marginal distributions of the risks Xi are specified but not their dependence structure. There exists a range of possible values for any risk measure of S = ∑n i=1Xi and the dependence uncertainty spread, as measured by the difference between the upper bound and the lower boun...

A distortion risk measure used in finance and insurance is defined as the expected value of potential loss under a scenario probability measure. In this paper, the tail distortion risk measure is introduced to assess tail risks of excess losses modeled by the right tails of loss distributions. The asymptotic linear relation between tail distortion and Value-at-Risk is derived for heavy tailed l...

Starting with a time-0 coherent risk measure defined for “value processes”, we also define risk measurement processes. Two other constructions of measurement processes are given in terms of sets of test probabilities. These latter constructions are identical and are related to the former construction when the sets fulfill a stability condition also met in multiperiod treatment of ambiguity as i...

Evaluating risk measures, premiums, and capital allocation based on dependent multi-losses is a notoriously difficult task. In this paper, we demonstrate how this can be successfully accomplished when losses follow the multivariate Pareto distribution of the second kind, which is an attractive model for multi-losses whose dependence and tail heaviness are influenced by a heavy-tailed background...

THE JOURNAL OF DERIVATIVES 1 The notion of extreme movements in asset prices is implicit in current risk management practices. Capital adequacy assumes a threshold that classifies observed changes in market risk factors either as extreme or ordinary. A probability is first chosen to measure the “extremeness” of events that may affect a particular portfolio. This probability then determines the ...

— This paper defends the wisdom of not considering the Digital Economy to be one homogeneous sector. Our hypothesis is that it is best to consider it the result of adding four different subsectors. We test whether indeed the economic and financial performance of a portfolio of listed companies in each of the four subsectors presents relevant differences. We use the value at risk measure to esti...