this paper attempts to compare the forecasting performance of the arima model and hybrid arma-garch models by using daily data of the iran’s exchange rate against the u.s. dollar (irr/usd) for the period of 20 march 2014 to 20 june 2015. the period of 20 march 2014 to 19 april 2015 was used to build the model while remaining data were used to do out of sample forecasting and check the forecasti...

this paper analyzes the effects ofexchange policies on iran,s foreign trade, by applying new econometric techniques. in assessing the impacts of depreciation of the national currency on macroeconomic variable, the real rather than nominal exchange rate has been determined to be more appropriate criterion to demonstrate the success or failure ofthe adopted policies. during the period under the s...

the successful key of trading in the forex market is the selection of correct exchange in proper time based on an exact prediction of future exchange rate. foreign exchange rates are affected by many correlated economic, political and even psychological factors. therefore, in order to achieve a profitable trade these factors should be considered. the application of intelligent techniques for fo...

in a managed floating exchange rate regime, one of the most important issues is the degree to which the monetary authorities intervene in the foreign exchange market.  the appropriate level of intervention in the foreign exchange market can be discussed in a framework which emphasizes the trade-off between changes in the country’s level of international reserves and minimizes the country’s real...

exchange rate pass-through to the price of traded goods is one of the important issues in economy of developing countries such as iran and affects the efficiency of the exchange rate policies to improve the trade balance. the main aim of this paper is to empirically analyze exchange rate pass-through to iran's saffron export price using panel data for twenty destination markets during 2000...