Exchangeability is a central notion in statistics and probability theory. The assumption that an infinite sequence of data points is exchangeable is at the core of Bayesian statistics. However, finite exchangeability as a statistical property that renders probabilistic inference tractable is less well-understood. We develop a theory of finite exchangeability and its relation to tractable probab...

Exchangeability is a central notion in statistics and probability theory. The assumption that an infinite sequence of data points is exchangeable is at the core of Bayesian statistics. However, finite exchangeability as a statistical property that renders probabilistic inference tractable is less well-understood. We develop a theory of finite exchangeability and its relation to tractable probab...

We investigate how to model exchangeability with choice functions. Exchangeability is a structural assessment on a sequence of uncertain variables. We show how such assessments are a special indifference assessment, and how that leads to a counterpart of de Finetti’s Representation Theorem, both in a finite and a countable context.

Sets of desirable gambles constitute a quite general type of uncertainty model with an interesting geometrical interpretation. We give a general discussion of such models and their rationality criteria. We study exchangeability assessments for them, and prove counterparts of de Finetti’s finite and infinite representation theorems. We show that the finite representation in terms of count vector...

This paper characterizes the aspects of exchangeability in the Shapley value. We show that, in the Shapley value, each player’s prospects of joining a t-player game as the last member of the game is a moment sequence of the uniform distribution. We prove that, with finite exchangeability, the Shapley value is the only value in which the probability assignment is a unique mixture of independent ...

Sets of desirable gambles constitute a quite general type of uncertainty model with an interesting geometrical interpretation. We study exchangeability assessments for such models, and prove a counterpart of de Finetti’s finite representation theorem. We show that this representation theorem has a very nice geometrical interpretation. We also lay bare the relationships between the representatio...

let x ,..., xn 1 be a random sample from a distribution with sample mean x and samplevariance s 2. in this paper we consider certain very general properties of the so-called “z-scores”x x s i n i ( − )/ : = 1,...., . a representation theorem is then given for z-scores obtained from an underlyingnormal population, together with a theorem for their limiting distribution as the sample size tends t...

This paper deals with belief models for both finite and countable sequences of exchangeable random variables taking a finite number of values. When such sequences of random variables are assumed to be exchangeable, this more-or-less means that the specific order in which they are observed is deemed irrelevant. The first detailed study of exchangeability was made by de Finetti [5] (with the term...