Population forecasts entail a significant amount of uncertainty, especially for long-range horizons and for places with small or rapidly changing populations. This uncertainty can be dealt with by presenting a range of projections or by developing statistical prediction intervals based on models that incorporate the stochastic nature of the forecasting process or on empirical analyses of past f...

Previous work on characterising the distribution of forecast errors in time series models by statistics such as the asymptotic mean square error has assumed that observations used in estimating parameters are statistically independent of those used to construct the forecasts themselves. This assumption is quite unrealistic in practical situations and the present paper is intended to tackle the ...

Statistical predictions of storm surge are critical for guiding evacuation and emergency response/preparedness decisions during landfalling storms. The probabilistic characteristics these formulated by utilizing historical forecast errors to quantify relevant uncertainties in the National Hurricane Center advisories. This ultimately leads description probability distributions quantifying deviat...

accurate quantitative precipitation forecasts (qpfs) have been always a demanding and challenging job in numerical weather prediction (nwp). the outputs of ensemble prediction systems (epss) in the form of probability forecasts provide a valuable tool for probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (pqpfs). in this research, different configurations of wrf and mm5 meso-scale models form ...

NOTICE The submitted manuscript has been offered by an employee of the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC (Alliance), a contractor of the US Government under Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308. Accordingly, the US Government and Alliance retain a nonexclusive royalty-free license to publish or reproduce the published form of this contribution, or allow others to do so, for US Government purposes....

In 2007, Intel’s Channel Supply Demand Operations launched an initiative to improve its supply chain performance. To ensure success, the process had to fit within the existing planning processes. In practice, this meant that setting service-level and inventory targets, which had previously been external inputs to the process, had to become part of the structured decision-making process. Althoug...