This paper considers nonparametric and semiparametric regression models subject to monotonicity constraint. We use bagging as an alternative approach to Hall and Huang (2001). Asymptotic properties of our proposed estimators and forecasts are established. Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to show their finite sample performance. An application to predicting equity premium is taken for illustr...

Projections of future populations are integral to many planning applications, yet are often poorly understood. This analysis focuses on the implications of the choices planners make when they construct projections. Specifically, it examines the impact of length of base period, analyzes the error structure of projection techniques for counties in the aggregate and by size and growth rates, inves...

We consider the sources of forecast errors and their consequences in an evolving economy subject to structural breaks,forecasting from mis-specified, data-based models. A model-free taxonomy of forecast errors highlights that deterministic shifts are a major cause of systematic forecast failure. Other sources seem to pose fewer problems. The taxonomy embeds several previous model-based taxonomi...

This work aims to forecast (over 1, 5, and 15 years) the extremes, expected value, volatility of natural disasters occurrences. To achieve this objective, we adopt a generalized two-factor square-root model linking together occurrences through stochastic correlation (Brownian motion). We use Pareto distribution (GPD) maximum number as measure value at risk (VaR). The results are checked in term...

Numerical weather prediction models as well as the atmosphere itself can be viewed as nonlinear dynamical systems in which the evolution depends sensitively on the initial conditions. The fact that estimates of the current state are inaccurate and that numerical models have inadequacies, leads to forecast errors that grow with increasing forecast lead time. The growth of errors depends on the f...

The objective of this study is to examine whether analysts fully incorporate a nonproportionate algorithm of cost-change relative to revenue-change in forecasting earnings. We conjecture that the errors in analysts’ earnings forecasts made in the first month after the fiscal year-end are largely due to the errors in estimating expenses as a result of analysts’ use of a proportionate cost-change...

Bacteriophage lambda (lambda) permits the display of many foreign peptides and proteins on the gpD major coat protein. However, some recombinant derivatives of gpD are incompatible with the assembly of stable phage particles. This presents a limitation to current lambda display systems. Here we describe a novel, plasmid-based expression system in which gpD deficient lambda lysogens can be co-co...