Subjective probabilistic judgments are inevitable in many real life domains. A common way to obtain such judgments is to assess fractiles or confidence intervals. However, such judgments tend to be systematically overconfident. For example, 90% confidence intervals for future uncertain quantities (e.g., future stock prices) are likely to capture only 50-60% of the actual realizations. Furthermo...

Nudge interventions have quickly expanded from academic studies to larger implementation in so‐called Units governments. This provides an opportunity compare research studies, versus at scale. We assemble a unique data set of 126 RCTs covering 23 million individuals, including all trials run by two the largest United States. these sample nudge journals recent meta‐analyses. In Academic Journals...