We study the valuation of the variance swaps under stochastic volatility with delay and jumps. In our model, the volatility of the underlying stock price process not only incorporates jumps, which are found to be active empirically, but also exhibits past dependence: the behavior of a stock price right after a given time t depends not only on the situation at t but also on the whole past histor...

This paper studies the behavior of price discovery within a context of an agent based stock market, in which the twin assumptions, namely, rational expectations and the representative agents normally made in mainstream economics, are removed. In this model, traders stochastically update their forecasts by searching the business school whose evolution is driven by genetic programming. Via these ...

a model of the iranian wheat market is specified and fitted to data from 1981-2008. severaldiagnostic tests were employed in the analysis to determine the specification of the model. despitethe simplicity of the model and data problems, an examination of the econometric model leads toseveral conclusions with possible important policy implications for the wheat economy in iran.the general result...

in this paper, the concept of conjectural variation (cv) is used to specify optimal generation decision for generation companies (gencos). the conjecture of genco is defined as its belief or expectation about the reaction of rivals to change of its output. using cv method, each genco has to learn and estimate strategic behaviors of other competitors from available historical market operation da...

We report data from laboratory emissions allowance markets in which allowances do not expire and can be banked between compliance periods. These periods consist of a sealed bid auction, trading, and then compliance. The markets consist of multiple sequential compliance periods. We observe (1) market prices reflect an expectation of future market prices, not underlying equilibrium; (2) allowance...

In this paper, the concept of Conjectural Variation (CV) is used to specify optimal generation decision for generation companies (Gencos). The conjecture of Genco is defined as its belief or expectation about the reaction of rivals to change of its output. Using CV method, each Genco has to learn and estimate strategic behaviors of other competitors from available historical market operation da...

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Six hens pecked a key (Experiment 1) or pushed a door (Experiment 2) to obtain food reinforcement. In both experiments and as an analogue of price changes, the response requirements were varied in two ways: by increasing the number of responses required and by increasing the required force of each response. The two price manipulations (response number and response force) had different effects o...

In this work, two models are proposed for electricity prices as energy commodity prices which in addition to mean-reverting properties have jumps and spikes, due to non-storability of electricity. The models are simulated using an Euler scheme, and then the Monte-Carlo method is used to estimate the expectation of the discounted cash-flow under historical probability, which is considered as the...