‎In this article‎, ‎we develop two nonparametric smoothing estimators for parameter of a time-variant parametric model‎. ‎This parameter can be from any parametric family or from any parametric or semi-parametric regression model‎. ‎Estimation is based on a two-step procedure‎, ‎in which we first get the raw estimate of the parameter at a set of disjoint time...

Penalized spline criteria involve the function of goodness of fit and penalty, which in the penalty function contains smoothing parameters. It serves to control the smoothness of the curve that works simultaneously with point knots and spline degree. The regression function with two predictors in the non-parametric model will have two different non-parametric regression functions. Therefore, we...

The asymptotic properties of smoothing parameter estimates for smoothing splines are developed. We consider a variety of estimates including Generalized Cross Validation, Generalized Maximum Likelihood, and more generally Type II ML estimates and the properties of the marginal posterior mode. Under the usual Sobolov space frequentist assumptions on the function to be estimated , consistency and...

Simple exponential smoothing (SES) methods are the most commonly used methods in forecasting and time series analysis. However, they are generally insensitive to non-stationary structural events such as level shifts, ramp shifts, and spikes or impulses. Similar to that of outliers in stationary time series, these non-stationary events will lead to increased level of errors in the forecasting pr...