The economic consequences of large-scale government investments in education depend on the general equilibrium (GE) effects in both the labor market and the education sector. I develop a general equilibrium model and derive sufficient statistics that capture the consequences of such massive countrywide schooling initiatives. I provide unbiased estimates of the sufficient statistics using a Regr...

A Bayesian Analysis of a Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns We apply Bayesian methods to study a common VAR-based approach for decomposing the variance of excess stock returns into components reflecting news about future excess stock returns, future real interest rates, and future dividends. We develop a new prior elicitation strategy which involves expressing beliefs about the components...

In this paper we review the factors that may lead to structural changes in stock market volatility and present an analysis that assesses whether emerging stock market volatility has changed significantly over the period 1976:01-2002:03. This period corresponds to the years of more profound development of both the financial and the productive sides in emerging countries. We use alternative metho...

Cointegration analysis has led to equilibrium-correction econometric systems being ubiquitous. But in a non-stationary world subject to structural breaks, where model and mechanism differ, equilibrium-correction models are a risky device from which to forecast. Equilibrium shifts entail systematic forecast failure, as forecasts will tend to move in the opposite direction to data. We explain the...

The textbook Dantzig-Wolfe decomposition for the Capacitated Lot Sizing Problem (CLSP), as already proposed by Manne in 1958, has an important structural deficiency. Imposing integrality constraints on the variables in the full blown master will not necessarily give the optimal IP solution as only production plans which satisfy the Wagner-Whitin condition can be selected. It is well known that ...

The emergence of collaborative approaches in innovation policy and regional governance has increased expectations for universities to engage strategy making assume broader roles responsibilities. Nonetheless, complexities inherent the process, context universities’ own institutional organisational capacity are often ignored or under-explained when framing roles. Although these frequently introd...

Understanding the role of foreign aid in poverty alleviation is one of the central inquiries for development economics. To augment past crosscountry studies and randomized evaluations, this project estimates the first sub-national model of foreign aid allocation and impact. Newly geocoded aid project data from Malawi is used in combination with multiple rounds of living standards data to predic...

Persistent Impact of Natural Disasters on Child Nutrition and Schooling: Evidence from the 1999 Colombian Earthquake This paper studies the impact of the 1999 Colombian Earthquake on child nutrition and schooling. The identification strategy combines household survey data with event data on the timing and location of the earthquake, exploiting the exogenous exposure of children to the shock. Th...

Empowering Women: The Effect of Schooling on Young Women’s Knowledge and Use of Contraception Large differences in fertility between women with high and low levels of education suggest that schooling may have a direct impact on knowledge and use of contraception. We investigate this issue using information on women in Mexico. In order to identify the causal effect of schooling, we exploit tempo...