in this study, 3 models of time-varying parameters (tvp), dynamic model selection (dms) and dynamic model averaging (dma) and a comparison with the ordinary least squares (ols) method in matlab in the time period 2003-2013 (with data on a monthly basis) are discussed. in the present study, the variables of unofficial exchange rate changes, interest rate changes and inflation in oil price foreca...

Time-varying parameter VARs with stochastic volatility are routinely used for structural analysis and forecasting in settings involving a few endogenous variables. Applying these models to high-dimensional datasets has proved be challenging due intensive computations over-parameterization concerns. We develop an efficient Bayesian sparsification method class of we call hybrid TVP-VARs—VARs time...

Estimates of instrumental rules can be utilized to describe central bank's behavior and monetary policy stance. In the last decade, considerable attention has been given to time-varying parameter (TVP) specification of monetary policy rules. Constant-parameter reaction functions likely ignore the impact of model uncertainty, shifting preferences and nonlinearities of policymaker's choices. This...