We use microsimulation to forecast changes in coronary heart disease (CHD) among adults 45 or above over a 20-year time horizon in Los Angeles County (N = 3.4 million), a county with 12 635 CHD deaths in 2010. We simulate individuals' life course and calibrate CHD trends to observed trends in the past. Using the Health Forecasting Community Health Simulation Model, we simulate CHD prevalence an...

Modeling efforts focused on future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from energy and other sectors in California have shown varying capacities to meet the emissions reduction targets established by the state. These efforts have not included potential reductions from changes in ecosystem management, restoration, and conservation. We examine the scale of contributions from selected activities in nat...

در این کار پژوهشی، نمونه‌های هیدروکسی اپتایت آلاییده با ناخالصی‌های سریم، گادولونیم و ترکیبی از دو ناخالصی به روش هیدروترمال سنتز شدند. منظور بررسی فازهای بلوری تشکیل یافته هرکدام شده، کد MAUD که یک نرم‌افزار برای تجزیه تحلیل ساختار ماده استفاده پراش بر اساس ریتولد است، شد. پاسخ دزیمتری ترمولومینسانس نمونه‌ها مورد قرار گرفت یافته‌ها نشان داد نمونه‌ ترکیبی، سطح میانی است. مشخص شد افزودن سریم می‌...

BACKGROUND Chronic hepatitis C virus infection is a major cause of liver disease in Switzerland and carries a significant cost burden. Currently, only conservative strategies are in place to mitigate the burden of hepatitis C in Switzerland. This study expands on previously described modeling efforts to explore the impact of: no treatment, and treatment to reduce HCC and mortality. Furthermore,...

Total knee arthroplasty (TKA) and total hip arthroplasty (THA) are recognised and proven interventions for patients with advanced arthritis. Studies to date have demonstrated a steady increase in the requirement for primary and revision procedures. Projected estimates made for the United States show that by 2030 the demand for primary TKA will grow by 673% and for revision TKA by 601% from the ...

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Stroke is a leading cause of disability, cognitive impairment, and death in the United States and accounts for 1.7% of national health expenditures. Because the population is aging and the risk of stroke more than doubles for each successive decade after the age of 55 years, these costs are anticipated to rise dramatically. The objective of this report was to project futu...

BACKGROUND The relative effects of individual and combined risk factor trends on future cardiovascular disease in China have not been quantified in detail. METHODS AND RESULTS Future risk factor trends in China were projected based on prior trends. Cardiovascular disease (coronary heart disease and stroke) in adults ages 35 to 84 years was projected from 2010 to 2030 using the Coronary Heart ...