Business cycles in Iran: Evidence from asymmetry and correlated shocks
In this Paper, business cycle asymmetry in Iran has been investigated using a nonlinear unobserved component model. In this regard, according to Kim and Nelsonchr('39')s (1999) interpretation of Friedman plucking model (1993), asymmetric transitory component has been modeled and simultaneously the possibility of a correlation between transitory and permanent shocks has also been considered. The results confirm weakly the asymmetric transitory shocks and the ceiling level for output according to Friedman’s model. In addition, it is also suggested by the results that ignoring the correlation between shocks underestimates the importance of permanent shocks to GDP.
T he discussion surrounding the recent deep recession seems to have shifted the focus from currently used business cycle models to the standard Keynesian model (by which we mean the “old Keynesian,” as opposed to the new Keynesian, model). In the Keynesian model, pessimism among consumers and investors about the economy will simultaneously lower aggregate consumption and aggregate investment, a...متن کامل
Earl y analysts of business cycles believed that each cyclical phase of the economy carries within it the seed that generates the next cyclical phase. A boom generates the next recession; that recession generates the next boom; and the economy is caught forever in a self-sustaining cycle. In contrast, modern theories of business cycles attribute cyclical fluctuations to the cumulative effects o...متن کامل
This paper proposes the use of data on expectations to identify the role of news shocks in business cycles. This approach exploits the fact that news shocks cause agents to adjust their expectations about the future even when current fundamentals are not affected. Using data on expectations, we estimate a dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium model that incorporates news shocks for the U.S. ...متن کامل
In this paper I estimate a SVAR model to study the transmission of UK shocks to the Irish economy over the period 1922-1979, using annual time series for CPI inflation and output growth. UK aggregate demand and supply shocks have large and significant impacts on Irish inflation, but smaller impacts on Irish real GDP growth. A historical decomposition indicates that UK aggregate demand shocks pl...متن کامل
Working papers of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment on research in progress. They may not have been subject to the formal editorial review accorded official Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland publications. The views stated herein are those of the authors and are not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank...متن کامل
This paper explores the booms and busts induced by news shocks in a model economy with financial market frictions. Firms can accumulate capital through either purchase of the existing capital or producing new capital by themselves. Firms need to borrow from financial intermediaries to finance their purchases of capital. With the presence of financial market frictions, firms have to pay an exter...متن کامل
دوره 28 شماره 95
صفحات 20- 40
تاریخ انتشار 2020-12
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