We study whether the nonlinear behavior of the real exchange rate can help us account for the lack of predictability of the nominal exchange rate. We construct a smooth nonlinear error-correction model that allows us to test the hypotheses of nonlinear predictability of the nominal exchange rate and nonlinear behavior on the real exchange rate in the context of a fully specified cointegrated sy...

Two types of statistical models are empirically applied to test the pattern of volatility in the exchange rate markets. One considers the autoregressive models and tests the random walk hypothesis. The other considers the conditional variance process and tests the hypothesis of chaotic dynamics. Empirical results mostly support the random walk hypothesis and also the existence of Lorenz-type ch...

The behavior of exchange rate in various exchange markets is not seemingly predictable, while there are different forecasting methods to do so. One of these methods is to use fractals to identify exchange rate behavior. This paper has made attempts to explore the properties of fractals in Iran’s exchange market in order to it can predict and analyze the trend of exchange rate. Accordingly, th...

The main objective of this study is to examine the existence and nature relationship between exchange rate foreign reserves. To avoid influencing market expectations, intervention program should indicate in advance nature, frequency, size central bank's transactions. Thus, sense, it essential determine interventions made from for official reserve. Following realization study, was highlighted co...

study of price trend in iran, showed that general level of prices is rising continually during time. an inflation situation has effect on most economic variables. therefore investigation of effective factors and variables on inflation is important. exchange rate and gap in product are factors which affect inflation. in this paper the impact of exchange rate shocks and gap on inflation in iran’s...