This paper introduces a framework to study the links between the supply of liquid assets for the financial market and the international allocation of economic activity. Private assets’ liquidity properties—their usefulness as collateral or media of exchange in financial transactions— affect assets’ values and interest rates, with consequences on firm entry, production, aggregate productivity, a...

Discount rate changes always receive considerable attention in financial markets. Two hypotheses compete to explain financial market reactions: the direct ‘borrowing cost effect’ and the announcement effect. This paper examines the issue for the Bundesbank’s discount rate changes after 1979. Summing up we find that market reactions cannot be attributed to a direct borrowing cost effect but excl...

we have studied the relation between bank deposit rates and house prices in iran. for that, we have run some var models, using the following variables: real deposit rates (including 1 and 5 years deposit rates), money supply (including the high powered money and the liquidity), gdp, housing services index, and number of licenses for new houses. our results show that a reduction in the deposit r...

using the quarterly data of 1990:1 to 2008:1 and in a general equilibrium approach, we investigate the long run equilibrium path of the equilibrium interest rate as well as the potential output. we implement a structural reduced form of a general equilibrium model consistent with iran’s economy and estimate the unobservable variables by employing the kalman filtering technique. a exponential ut...

This short paper resolves an apparent contradiction between Feldman’s (1989) and Riedel’s (2000) equilibrium models of the term structure of interest rates under incomplete information. Feldman (1989) showed that in an incomplete information version of Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1985), where the stochastic productivity factors are unobservable, equilibrium term structures are “interior” and boun...

Although the real exchange rate real interest rate (RERI) relationship is central to most open economy macroeconomic models, empirical support for the relationship is generally found to be rather weak. In this paper we re-investigate the RERI relationship using bilateral U.S. real exchange rate data spanning the period 1978 to 2007. Instead of testing one particular model, we build on Campbell ...

The Great Moderation refers to the fall in U.S. output growth volatility in the mid-1980s. At the same time, the United States experienced a moderation in inflation and lower average inflation. Using annual data since 1890, we find that an earlier, 1946 moderation in output and consumption growth was comparable to that of 1984. Using quarterly data since 1947, we also isolate the 1969–83 Great ...

We construct a no-arbitrage term structure model with jumps in the entire state vector at deterministic times but of random magnitudes. Jump risk premia are allowed for. We show that the model implies a closed-form representation of yields as a time-inhomogeneous affine function of the state vector, and derive other theoretical implications. We apply the model to the term structure of US Treasu...

We use the inflation premium—the difference between nominal and real interest rates—as a proxy for expected inflation in the context of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. Using data from inflation-indexed and nominal bonds we estimate a forward-looking Phillips curve for the United Kingdom over the period 1985-2004. The proposed model describes UK inflation dynamics considerably better than does...