نتایج جستجو برای: time series analysis adaptive exponential smoothing level shifts statistical control limits
تعداد نتایج: 6219196 فیلتر نتایج به سال:
the medium density fiberboard (mdf) market demand was investigated during the years from 2004 to 2013 in iran. estimation of mdf demand was made by exponential smoothing method by the year 2018. the insight into the level of demand that might exist by the year 2013 was obtained by reviewing the production, import, export, and consumption of mdf on the iran. the results show that the consumption...
In this paper we propose a new set of multivariate stochastic models that capture time varying seasonality within the vector innovations structural time series (VISTS) framework. These models encapsulate exponential smoothing methods in a multivariate setting. The models considered are the local level, local trend and damped trend VISTS models with an additive multivariate seasonal component. W...
Bullwhip effect in a supply chain, makes inefficiencies such as excess inventory and overdue orders during the chain. These problems can be reduced by appropriate predictions. Forecasting must be done in all levels of a supply chain. This research addresses the problem of optimal combination of forecasting to reduce the bullwhip effect in a four-level supply chain when demand is variable. For t...
The particle swarm optimizer (PSO) is a population-based metaheuristic optimization method that can be applied to a wide range of problems but it has the drawbacks like it easily falls into local optima and suffers from slow convergence in the later stages. In order to solve these problems, improved PSO (IPSO) variants, have been proposed. To bring about a balance between the exploration and ex...
This empirical paper compares the accuracy of six univariate methods for short-term electricity demand forecasting for lead times up to a day ahead. The very short lead times are of particular interest as univariate methods are often replaced by multivariate methods for prediction beyond about six hours ahead. The methods considered include the recently proposed exponential smoothing method for...
Creating an immersive experience in a collaborative virtual environment, or CVE, involves more than just high definition graphics and expensive hardware. An immersive experience requires participant’s input to be translated in a timely fashion to the local environment as well as to others connected across the internet. A well designed prediction algorithm will reduce the lag caused by virtual e...
Steel rolling process control is the key working procedure of the steel yield process, and that the control of the rolling process is the important factor to affect the quality and cost of the product. This paper is focus on the mill control. Firstly, the model of the mill is founded by exponential smoothing. Then, the method of self-learning optimization can be used to control the model. The o...
A review and categorization of electric load forecasting techniques is presented. A wide range of methodologies and models for forecasting are given in the literature. These techniques are classi®ed here into nine categories: (1) multiple regression, (2) exponential smoothing, (3) iterative reweighted least-squares, (4) adaptive load forecasting, (5) stochastic time series, (6) ARMAX models bas...
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