The focus of this paper is the development of a computational model for intelligent agents that decides on whether to acquire required information by retrieving it from memory or by interacting with the world. First, we present a task for which such decisions have to be made. Next, we discuss an experiment that shows that humans do not apply rational expected utility analysis to make this decis...

In this paper, we consider portfolio selection problem in which security returns are regarded as fuzzy variables rather than random variables. We first introduce a concept of absolute deviation for fuzzy variables and prove some useful properties, which imply that absolute deviation may be used to measure risk well. Then we propose two mean-absolute deviation models by defining risk as abs...

In portfolio theory, it is well-known that the distributions of stock returns often have non-Gaussian characteristics. Therefore, we need non-symmetric distributions for modeling and accurate analysis of actuarial data. For this purpose and optimal portfolio selection, we use the Tail Mean-Variance (TMV) model, which focuses on the rare risks but high losses and usually happens in the tail of r...

Many risk measures have been recently introduced which (for discrete random variables) result in Linear Programs (LP). While some LP computable risk measures may be viewed as approximations to the variance (e.g., the mean absolute deviation or the Gini’s mean absolute difference), shortfall or quantile risk measures are recently gaining more popularity in various financial applications. In this...

in this research, the daily precipitation data of 1437 synoptic, climatic and rain gauging stations of iran in the time interval 1961- 2004 (equal to 15705 days) was utilized. using kriging geostatistics method, the data were interpolated on the pixels of 15 *15km2, so as an array to the dimension of 15705 * 7187 was formed. to identify the fittest distribution of the days with over 5.0mm preci...

Line 5 in the first paragraph of [1] under the section Option basics appeared as follows: “A call option gives the buyer of the option the right to buy the underlying asset at a fixed price (strike price or K) at any time prior to the expiration date of the option.” It is commonplace in derivatives literature to denote the strike or exercise price as K (e.g., refer to http://www.duke.edu/∼charv...

In this paper, we consider the problem of computing the affective responses that humans experience when reading or watching stories. Evidence suggests that emotional responses result from recipient (reader, watcher, etc.) problem solving on behalf of story world characters when the recipient predicts undesirable narrative outcomes. Our system computes the level of tension a human recipient is e...

This paper studies the optimal investment problem for an insurer in an incompletemarket.The insurer’s risk process ismodeled by a Lévy process and the insurer is supposed to have the option of investing inmultiple risky assets whose price processes are described by the standard Black-Scholes model. The insurer aims to maximize the expected utility of terminal wealth. After the market is complet...

Bayesian inference about small areas is of considerable current interest, and simultaneous intervals for the parameters for the areas are needed because these parameters are correlated. This is not usually pursued because with many areas the problem becomes difficult. We describe a method for finding simultaneous credible intervals for a relatively large number of parameters, each corresponding...