Predicting the peak distribution of stochastic stress responses is critical for various fatigue analysis problems with stochastic uncertainties. In this paper, a method, based on the first-order reliability method (FORM), is proposed for estimating the peak distribution of stochastic response. The method linearizes the stochastic process at the associated most probable point. After linearizatio...

The potential for liquefaction triggering of a soil under a given seismic loading is measured herein by probability of liquefaction. The first order reliability method FORM is used to calculate reliability index, from which the probability of liquefaction is obtained. This approach requires the knowledge of parameter and model uncertainties; the latter is the focus of this paper. An empirical m...

This paper presents a new and alternative method (in the context of urban drainage) for probabilistic hydrodynamical analysis of drainage systems in general and especially prediction of combined sewer overflow. Using a probabilistic shell it is possible to implement both input and parameter uncertainties on an application of the commercial urban drainage model MOUSE combined with the probabilis...

1. Abstract Reliability-based design optimizations (RBDO) require evaluation of sensitivities of probabilistic constraints. To develop RBDO utilizing the recently proposed novel second-order reliability method (SORM) that improves the conventional SORM in terms of accuracy, the sensitivities of the probabilistic constraints at the most probable point (MPP) are required. Thus, this study present...

The efficiency and robustness of reliability methods are two important factors in the first-order reliability method (FORM). The conjugate choice control (CCC) and directional chaos control method (DCC) are developed to improve the robustness and efficiency of the FORM formula using the stability transformation method. In this paper, the CCC and DCC methods are applied for the reliability analy...