this paper attempts to compare the forecasting performance of the arima model and hybrid arma-garch models by using daily data of the iran’s exchange rate against the u.s. dollar (irr/usd) for the period of 20 march 2014 to 20 june 2015. the period of 20 march 2014 to 19 april 2015 was used to build the model while remaining data were used to do out of sample forecasting and check the forecasti...

Forecasting financial markets is an important issue in finance area and research studies. On one hand, the importance of prediction, and on the other hand, its complexity, have led to huge number of researches which have proposed many forecasting methods in this area. In this study, we propose a hybrid model including Wavelet Transform, ARMA-GARCH and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for single-...

The solar photovoltaic (PV) systems are facing serious problems due to unavoidable losses in their system, leads to more devation of output power from the input power level. This effect is known as a mismatch effect and is available in PV systems. Many losses are encountered in PV system and it is difficult to minimize such losses. In this paper, the influence of thermal effect on the solar PV ...

Time series and their methods of analysis are important subjects in statistics. Most of time series have a linear behavior and can be modelled by linear ARIMA models. However, some of realized time series have a nonlinear behavior and for modelling them one needs nonlinear models. For this, many good parametric nonlinear models such as bilinear model, exponential autoregressive model, threshold...

malaria is a parasitic disease with limited chemotherapy options. chemotherapy options are limited; moreover, drug resistant frequently occurs. the speed of drug development should be faster to overcome the emerging drug resistance. in the current study, a series of quinolone derivatives were subjected to quantitative structure activity relationship to identify the ideal physicochemical charact...

Model identification is an important and complicated step within the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) methodology framework. This step is especially difficult for integrated series. In this article first investigate Box-Jenkins methodology and its faults in detecting model, and hence have discussed the problem of outliers in time series. By using this optimization method, we wil...

This study proposes the model for interpolating time series to use them  to forecast effectively for future. This model is established based on the improved fuzzy clustering analysis problem, which is implemented by the Matlab procedure. The proposed model is illustrated by a data set and tested for many other datasets, especially for 3003 series in  M3-Competition data. Comparing  to the exist...