This paper presents new evidence on the persistence of fluctuations in real GNP. Two measures of persistence are estimated non-parametricaFly using post-war quarterly data from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. These estimates are compared with Monte Carlo results from various AR(2J processes. For six Out of seven countries, the results indicate t...

– We show that if the primordial classical perturbations were generated by the gravitational particle creation during inflation, and followed by an evolution of quantum-to-classical transition , the time dependent correlation of these perturbations is long-tailed with a correlation time larger than the Hubble-time. Consequently, the inflationary perturbations are locally scale-scale correlated....

This paper presents new evidence on the persistence of fluctuations in real GNP. Two measures of persistence are estimated non-parametricaFly using post-war quarterly data from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. These estimates are compared with Monte Carlo results from various AR(2J processes. For six Out of seven countries, the results indicate t...

In this paper we show that measures of economic uncertainty (conditional volatility of consumption) predict and are predicted by valuation ratios at long horizons. Further we document that asset valuations drop as economic uncertainty rises — that is, financial markets dislike economic uncertainty. Moreover, future earnings growth rates are sharply predicted by current price-earnings ratios. It...