When faced with delayed, uncertain rewards, humans and other animals usually prefer to know the eventual outcomes in advance. This preference for cues providing advance information can lead to seemingly suboptimal choices, where less reward is preferred over more reward. Here, we introduce a reinforcement-learning model of this behavior, the anticipated prediction error (APE) model, based on th...

This paper evaluates how anticipated changes in household debt associated with the leveraged purchase of housing a ects consumption. I build a heterogeneous agent model, calibrated to match the distribution of income and wealth within the US economy, in which households are subject to uninsurable income shocks and can save in both liquid and illiquid assets. I show that the marginal propensity ...

Predictability of chaotic systems is limited, in addition to the precision of the knowledge of the initial conditions, by the error of the models used to extract the nonlinear dynamics from the time series. In this paper, we analyze the predictions obtained from the anticipated synchronization scheme using a chain of slave neural network approximate replicas of the master system. We compare the...

We study the regime of anticipated synchronization recently described on a number of dynamical systems including chaotic ones. We use simple linear caricatures to show the minimal setups able to reproduce the basic facts described.

With the implementation of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), access to insurance and coverage of preventive care services has been expanded. By removing the barrier of shared costs for preventive care, it is expected that an increase in utilization of preventive care services will reduce the cost of chronic diseases. Early detection and treatment is anticipated to be less costly than treatment at ...