Considering that excessive sample data points are needed in the probabilistic method, in this paper, two non-probabilistic methods are proposed for uncertainty quantification and propagation analysis based on the Gray mathematical theory and the information entropy theory. These two methods can give the interval estimation of true value from the framework of non-probabilistic theory under the c...

When breast screening began in the UK, such was the uncertainty concerning the benefi ts and harms of detecting ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) that national guidelines specifi ed an upper limit as well as a lower limit for detection by individual screening centres. This was only changed when an association was shown between DCIS detection and small invasive cancer detection in the National Hea...

uncertainty analysis is a useful tool to evaluate soil water simulations in order to get more information about the models output. these information provide more confidence for decision making processes. in this study, swap model is applied for soil water balance simulations in two fields which are planted by wheat and maize in an arid region. first the amount of uncertainty is estimated and co...

this paper investigates the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the iran’s import trade. the exchange rate ‎uncertainty series were generated utilizing the tarch model. this model analyzes the asymmetric effects. the analysis of uncertainty and asymmetry ‎of the exchange rate shows significant tarch ‎effect on iran’s exchange rates‎. the findings of the study indicate negative shocks (bad ne...

Fuzzy set theory has been proposed as a means for modeling the vagueness in complex systems. Fuzzy systems usually employ type-1 fuzzy sets, representing uncertainty by numbers in the range [0, 1]. Despite commercial success of fuzzy logic, a type-1 fuzzy set (T1FS) does not capture uncertainty in its manifestations when it arises from vagueness in the shape of the membership function. Such unc...

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