When the nominal interest rate reaches its zero lower bound, credibility is crucial for conducting forward guidance. We determine optimal policy in a New Keynesian model when the central bank has imperfect credibility and cannot set the nominal interest rate below zero. In our model, an announcement of a low interest rate for an extended period does not necessarily reflect high credibility. Eve...

Previous studies on fiscal policy at the zero bound have focused on models with perfect foresight. However, the recent economic environment motivating such research is characterized by a high degree of uncertainty. This paper studies optimal government spending and monetary policy when the nominal interest rate is subject to the zero lower bound constraint in a stochastic environment. In the pr...

T   he completed MCI includes three main channels of interest rate, exchange rate and credit rate. In developing countries such as Iran, this indicator, which contains a credit channel, could be better used to illustrate the country’s monetary condition. This study has been done to calculate this index for the period of 1978–2012. For this purpose, the function of the total economy demand ...

Empirical evidence presented in this paper shows that the predictability of inflation at long horizons varies considerably across countries. Both simple theory and empirical evidence suggest that the crucial factor is the extent to which systematic monetary policy succeeds in stabilising the incipient unit root in inflation. The mechanism by which it does this appears however to be complicated ...