[1] This study reveals that a quasi‐decadal variability exists in the climate system of southern high latitudes, particularly in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and subpolar to mid latitudes sea surface temperature (SST), based on in situ observations, reanalysis data, and the 20th Century runs of IPCC AR4 coupled climate models. Spectral analysis reveals that a statistically significant variab...

This paper presents a probabilistic-based framework for the design of civil infrastructure repair and rehabilitation to achieve targeted improvements in sustainability indicators. The framework consists of two types of models: (i) service life prediction models combining one or several deterioration mechanisms with a suite of limit states and (ii) life cycle assessment (LCA) models for measurin...

A Bayesian approach is applied to the observed regional and seasonal surface air temperature (SAT) changes using single-model ensembles (SMEs) with the ECHO-G model and multimodel ensembles (MMEs) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) simulations. Bayesian decision classifies observations into the most probable scenario out of six available scena...

The MIT Integrated Global System Model is used to make probabilistic projections of climate change from 1861 to 2100. Since the model’s first projections were published in 2003 substantial improvements have been made to the model and improved estimates of the probability distributions of uncertain input parameters have become available. The new projections are considerably warmer than the 2003 ...

The performance of coupled climate models (CCMs) in simulating the hydrographic structure and variability of the northwestern North Atlantic Ocean, in particular the Labrador and Irminger Seas, has been assessed. This area plays an important role in the meridional overturning circulation. Hydrographic properties of the preindustrial run of eight CCMs used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Clima...

[1] The extent and thickness of the Arctic sea ice cover has decreased dramatically in the past few decades with minima in sea ice extent in September 2005 and 2007. These minima have not been predicted in the IPCC AR4 report, suggesting that the sea ice component of climate models should more realistically represent the processes controlling the sea ice mass balance. One of the processes poorl...

Methanotrophs are a specialized group of bacteria that can utilize methane (CH₄) as a sole energy source. A key enzyme responsible for methane oxidation is methane monooxygenase (MMO), of either a soluble, cytoplasmic type (sMMO), or a particulate, membrane-bound type (pMMO). Methylocellasilvestris BL2 and Methyloferulastellata AR4 are closely related methanotroph species that oxidize methane v...

[1] From 1953 to 2006, Arctic sea ice extent at the end of the melt season in September has declined sharply. All models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) show declining Arctic ice cover over this period. However, depending on the time window for analysis, none or very few individual model simulations show trends comparable to obs...

[1] A group of twelve IPCC fourth assessment report (AR4) climate models have Arctic (60N–90N) warmings that are, on average, 1.9 times greater than their global warmings at the time of CO2 doubling in 1%/year CO2 increase experiments. Forcings and feedbacks that impact the warming response are estimated for both Arctic and global regions based on standard model diagnostics. Fitting a zero-dime...