An almost universal assumption in the bullwhip effect modeling literature is that excess goods may be returned without restriction. We seek to determine if returns impact the level of bullwhip effect observed in a multi-stage supply chain. We build a hybrid agent/ discrete-event simulation model of a supply chain and execute it under various conditions of demand variance, lead-time variance, in...

In this paper, a two-echelon supply chain, which includes two products based on the following considerations, has been studied and the bullwhip effect is quantified. Providing a measure for bullwhip effect that enables us to analyze and reduce this phenomenon in supply chains with two products is the basic purpose of this paper. Demand of products is presented by the first order vector autoregr...

In a supply chain the variability of the orders received by the supplier can be greater than the demand variability. This phenomenon is named bullwhip effect. Some researchers are quantified the bullwhip by measuring the differences between observed variances in the different stages of the supply chain. The bullwhip effect refers to the phenomenon of amplification and distortion of demand in a ...

The bullwhip effect as a concept has been known for almost half a century starting with the Forrester effect. The bullwhip effect is ‘‘allegedly’’ observed in many supply chains, and it is generally accepted as a potential malice. Despite this the bullwhip effect still seems to be first and foremost a conceptual phenomenon. Some even simply denies that the phenomenon exists at all in practice. ...

Consider multiple companies operating as a serial supply chain. Within this environment, end users form the demand for the last company in the supply chain, but the demand for upstream companies is formed by the companies in the immediate downstream supply chain link. It has been shown that demand seasonality and forecast error can increase as we proceed up the supply chain. These demand distor...

An important observation in supply chain management, known as the bullwhip eeect, suggests that demand variability increases as one moves up a supply chain. In this paper we quantify this eeect for simple, two-stage, supply chains consisting of a single retailer and a single manufacturer. Our model includes two of the factors commonly assumed to cause the bullwhip eeect: demand forecasting and ...