نتایج جستجو برای: 2071 2100
تعداد نتایج: 5286 فیلتر نتایج به سال:
Changes in the mean and the extreme values of hydroclimatic variables are two prominent features of the future climate. Therefore, simulating the climatic behavior of Shandiz catchment area, an important tourist area in the northeast of the country, will play an important role in identifying the climate condition and potential vulnerability of these areas in the coming decades of climate ch...
Glaciers and ice caps in Norway are presently undergoing mass loss, areal reduction, frontal retreat, mainly a result of increased summer ablation due to rising temperatures over Scandinavia, especially after 2000 CE. In this paper, the glacier mass-balance response 10 Norwegian glaciers with continuous balance observations (>10 years) climate projections from 1971–2000 2071–2100 have been e...
اجزای هیدرولوژیکی مورد استفاده در این تحقیق عبارتند از داده های کوچک مقیاس شده بارش و دمای خروجی مدل چرخش عمومی cgcm3 . به بیان دیگر داده های بارش و دمای کوچک مقیاس شده مدل cgcm3 به عنوان ورودی مدل هیدرولویکی swat با هدف شبیه سازی جریان مورد استفاده قرار گرفته است. مدل swat یک مدل هیدرولوژیکی برای پیش بینی و بررسی تاثیر روش های مدیریتی متفاوت بر جریان، رسوب و عناصر شیمیایی در حوضه های با خاک، ...
Simulation of climate change in Iran during 2071-2100 using PRECIS regional climate modelling system
Parameters such as future precipitation, temperature, snowfall, and runoff were modeled using PRECIS regionalclimate modeling system in Iran with the horizontal resolutions of 0.44×0.44°C in latitude and longitude under SRESA2 and B2 scenarios. The dataset was based on HadAM3p during the periods of 1961-1990 and 2071-2100. Theoverall precipitation error of the model in the period of 1961-1990 w...
Using a simple temperature-driven multistage threshold developmental model, we analyse the impact of climate change on the life cycle dynamics of the spruce bark beetle Ips typographus. The completion of a full reproductive second generation within a single year (bivoltinism) might increase the risk of devastating bark beetle outbreaks. A network of more than 300 climate stations, comprising ti...
The IPCC TAR (2001) suggests that Southern and Central European countries may become highly vulnerable to global warming. In the frame of the Hungarian national climate change program, adaptation of regional models with fine horizontal resolution (10-25 km) is in progress. Since detailed simulations and evaluation of the final results are not available yet for the Carpathian Basin, results of t...
Earth’s changing climate may have different effects around the planet. Regional changes in temperature and precipitation extremes are associated with damaging natural hazards. Decreases expected to occur some places at mid-latitudes, for instance Mediterranean, which has been classified as a change hotspot. Droughts among most hazards severe consequences socio-economic sectors, environment, liv...
Precipitation induced mudflows are a major and longstanding threat in Uzbekistan, impacting on many properties livelihoods. In this paper, the role of large-scale atmospheric circulation producing conditions necessary to initiate piedmont areas Uzbekistan have been evaluated based historical scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways; RCP8.5) experiments along from 10 Coupled Model Interco...
در این پژوهش، اثرات بلندمدت تغییراقلیم بر تغییرات مکانی و زمانی بارش در سطح کشور تحت سناریوهای A1B، A2 و B1 تا سال 2100 بررسی شد. با استفاده از دادههای بارش روزانه در دورهی پایه (2010-1980) در 52 ایستگاه سینوپتیک، مدل LARS-WG واسنجی شده و جهت ریزمقیاسسازی دادههای مدل گردش عمومی جو HADCM3 تحت سناریوهای مذکور تا سال 2100 استفاده شد. نقشههای پراکنش مکانی تغییرات بارش در محیط GIS تهیه شد. مقاد...
Eddies in the California Current System (CCS) are generated via baroclinic instabilities of upwelling jet and contribute to mesoscale variability. However, climate-induced changes activity CCS remain poorly explored. We present future eddy kinetic energy (EKE) from an ensemble three high-resolution downscaled ocean projections covering 1980–2100. EKE is projected increase throughout toward end ...
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