The Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC) is a pragmatic approach in risk assessment. In the absence of data, it sets up levels of human exposure that are considered to have no appreciable risk to human health. The Cramer decision tree is used extensively to determine these exposure thresholds by categorizing non-carcinogenic chemicals into three different structural classes. Therefore, assi...

Using expert judgment data from the TU Delft's expert judgment data base, we compare the performance of different weighting schemes, namely equal weighting, performance based weighting from the classical model (Cooke, 1991), social network weighting and likelihood weighting. The picture that emerges with regard to social network weights is rather mixed. SN theory does not provide an alternative...

Rule-Based Forecasting (RBF) is an expert system that uses judgment to develop and apply rules for combining extrapolations. The judgment comes from two sources, forecasting expertise and domain knowledge. Forecasting expertise is based on more than a half century of research. Domain knowledge is obtained in a structured way; one example of domain knowledge is managers= expectations about trend...

Expert judgment can be seen throughout climate science and even more prominently when discussing tipping points. To provide an accurate characterization of expert we begin by evaluating the existing literature on expertise as it relates to a whole, before then focusing review role in unique context From this turn our attention structured elicitation protocols specifically developed for producin...