A recent paper by Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997) suggests that monetary policy could be used to eliminate any recessionary consequences of an oil price shock. This paper challenges that conclusion on two grounds. First, we question whether the Federal Reserve actually has the power to implement such a policy; for example, we consider it unlikely that additional money creation would have su...

futures contract is one of the most important derivatives that is used in financial markets in all over the world to buy or sell an asset or commodity in the future. pricing of this tool depends on expected price of asset or commodity at the maturity date. according to this, theoretical futures pricing models try to find this expected price in order to use in the futures contract. so in this ar...

The main purpose of this paper is to provide a quantitative analysis to investigate the behavior of the OPEC oil price. Obtaining the best mathematical equation to describe the price and volatility of oil has a great importance. Stochastic differential equations are one of the best models to determine the oil price, because they include the random factor which can apply the effect of different ...

Traditional approaches to structural interpretation of vector autoregressions can be viewed as special cases of Bayesian inference arising from very strong prior beliefs about certain aspects of the model. These traditional methods can be generalized with a less restrictive Bayesian formulation that allows the researcher to summarize uncertainty coming not just from the data but also uncertaint...

one of the main principles of resistance economy, is to support domestic production and limiting imports, especially in sectors where there is the possibility of import-substituting production .this requires adjustment of exact trade policies,and to achieve this, identifying the structure of imports demand function and also price and income elasticity of import demand is necessary.this necessit...

In this paper, we empirically investigate the relationship between oil price changes and output in a group of oil exporting countries. The dynamics of business cycles in Libya, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Kuwait, Venezuela and Qatar are modeled by alternative regime switching models. We show that the extension of uni-variate Markov Switching model in order to include oil revenue improves dating busi...

The government of Tanzania has persistently experienced uneven growth rate Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and failed to attain the national target. This research study intended examine impact oil price volatility on inflation economic in Tanzania. Specifically, analysed causal relationship between Oil Price Volatility, employed secondary data modelling time series was done by using Auto regressiv...