In this paper the long-run trend in CPI inflation (core inflation) for the US over the 1960– 2000 period is estimated using a common trends model. In this framework, core inflation is interpreted and constructed as the long-run forecast of inflation conditional on the information contained in nominal money growth, output fluctuations and movements in the oil price. Unlike other commonly used me...

The primary goal of monetary policy in most countries is low infl ation. And a major consideration for the monetary policy decision is the forecast for infl ation over the next couple of years. One important input into these forecasts is a judgment on the current level of infl ationary pressures. But, unfortunately, the data for headline infl ation released each quarter (in Australia) or each m...

I am very happy to have the opportunity to participate in this conference and to honor Ben Friedman’s work. Ben deserves to be honored. He is not only a great economist; he is also a wonderful person. The Gerlach and Jordan (2011) paper is organized around a great idea, namely comparing Ben’s thinking about the tactics and strategy of monetary policy with the practical monetary policy of the Sw...

This paper proposes a simple explanation for the frequent appearance of a price puzzle in VARs designed for monetary policy analysis. It suggests that the best method of solving the puzzle implies a close connection between theory and empirics rather than the introduction of a commodity price. It proves that the omission of a measure of output gap (or potential output) spuriously produces a pri...

This paper tests for the existence of asymmetric information between the Federal Reserve and the public by examining Federal Reserve and commercial inflation forecasts. It demonstrates that the Federal Reserve has considerable information about inflation beyond what is known to commercial forecasters. It also shows that monetary-policy actions provide signals of the Federal Reserve’s informatio...

Nearly 80% of young people today will never be able to retire. Why? Because they lack the personal finance training that leads to long-term planning and future security. Connecting the dots between kids and money management skills prepares them for the financial realities the world will face over the next century. Pocket money is one of the first ways for children to learn the basics of managin...