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The Northwest Pacific (NWP) anomalous anticyclone (AAC) intensifies and extends northward from El Nino decaying early to mid-summer, despite Nino-induced sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Indian Ocean, Atlantic subtropical NWP. present study suggests intra-seasonal variations of AAC are induced by local mean state changes investigates underlying mechanisms perspective energet...

Although anomalous episodic warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific, dubbed El Niño by Peruvian fishermen, has major (and occasionally devastating) impacts around the globe, robust forecasting is still limited to about 6 mo ahead. A significant extension of the prewarning time would be instrumental for avoiding some of the worst damages such as harvest failures in developing countries. Here w...

Studies of rainfall variation generally focus on large areas. For example, in India, the area average monsoon rainfall series of the whole country or meteorological subdivisions are used. This would be of no use for local agriculture, particularly in places where rainfall is very high or very low, especially for crops like small cardamom and vanilla which are very sensitive to soil moisture and...

The objective of this study is to quantify the nature of the mechanisms of southern Africa rainfall variability, unrelated to the El Nino Southern Oscillation, by means of a simple empirical composite analysis, as a baseline for a more detailed study.

Significant climate anomalies persist through the summer (June-August) after El Nino dissipates in spring over the equatorial Pacific. They include the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) warming, increased tropical tropospheric temperature, an anomalous anticyclone over the subtropical Northwest Pacific, and increased Meiyu-Baiu rainfall over East Asia. The cause of these...

River floods and hydrological droughts (low stream water resources) are a recurrent problem in different parts of Fiji, causing disruption and hardship for many rural communities. These extremes in fluvial behavior are associated with large seasonal variability in rainfall, generated by intense tropical storms in the wet season and prolonged rain failure in the dry season. Such conditions are l...

Coastal hurricanes create tremendous environmental change and generate huge financial losses. The relative infrequency of severe coastal hurricanes implies that empirical probability estimates of the next big catastrophe will be unreliable. Here we model hurricane activity and resulting insured losses using extreme value theory and Bayesian models. The occurrence of a hurricane above a specifie...