Fifty years on we examine two key propositions in Neale’s (1964) “Peculiar Economics”: the need for competitors in sport to have opponents of similar ability in order to earn large revenues and the effect of frequent changes sports leagues’ standings on consumer demand. We develop a consumer choice model under uncertainty, and a structural econometric model, to motivate and test these ideas. Un...

The study of time-dependent univariate systems plays an important role in several physical and applied sciences. Time-series behaviour of such systems is mostly complex in nature and sophisticated mathematical modelling tools are needed for making accurate forecasts. These forecasts can be used for specific purposes in different domains, for example, to plan resources, develop market strategies...

This paper introduces the concept of Temporal Hierarchies for time series forecasting. A temporal hierarchy can be constructed for any time series by means of non-overlapping temporal aggregation. Predictions constructed at all aggregation levels are combined with the proposed framework to result in temporally reconciled, accurate and robust forecasts. The implied combination mitigates modellin...

This study presents the implication of Bayesian technique on simple statistical and econometric forecasting models to improve the forecast performances of the models. We consider a nonlinear, non-stationary time series of household electricity demand to demonstrate the Bayesian implication to statistical techniques. In this forecasting process, the electricity demand is considered a function of...

Recent work has emphasized the importance of evaluating forecasts of a statistical functional (such as a mean, quantile, or distribution) using a loss function that is consistent for the functional of interest, of which there are an in…nite number. If forecasters all use correctly speci…ed models free from estimation error, and if the information sets of competing forecasters are nested, then t...