This paper reexamines the oil price-macroeconomy relationship with rolling Granger causality and structural stability tests. It finds that the relationship broke down amidst the falling oil prices and market collapse of the 1980s, suggesting misspecification of the oil price rather than a weakened relationship. Some proposed respecifications of the oil price yield considerable improvements, alt...

This paper examines the dynamic effects of oil price shocks in addition to the aggregate supply and demand shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in four sample economies: Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan and Thailand. We aim to discover whether oil price shocks play a crucial role in explaining output and domestic price fluctuation in small emerging economies after 1990s. We are also keen to assess...

The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of crude oil price on global fertilizer prices in both the mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and alternative volatility models, including the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model, an...

Recent spikes in oil prices have thrown light on how economic activity in emerging markets may be impacted by oil price shocks. This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the effect of oil price shocks on emerging markets. It tests for the existence of an asymmetrical relationship between oil prices and economic activity using a model developed by James Hamilton. It also assesses the impact o...

This paper explores how oil price shocks a ect scal policy and macroeconomic performance in an oil exporting small open economy. In this type of economy, oil price shocks in uence scal policy because they have nontrivial e ects on the government's budget constraint. On one hand, oil price shocks a ect revenue directly as oil revenue constitutes a large share of total revenue. On the other hand,...

in this study, we assess the impact of oil price changes on the macroeconomic variables of some oil importers in oecd countries, including usa, italian, france and japan during the period 1960-2002. the results for different countries imply asymmetric impact of oil price changes on gdp growth rates; moreover, the results show that monetary shocks are an important and noticeable factor explainin...

The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of crude oil price on global fertilizer prices in both the mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, ARDL model, and alternative volatility models, including GARCH, EGARCH, and GJR models, are used to investigate the relationship between crude oil price and six global fertilizer prices. The empirical result...