Survey evidence suggests that many investors form beliefs about future stock market returns by extrapolating past returns. Such beliefs are hard to reconcile with existing models of the aggregate stock market. We study a consumption-based asset pricing model in which some investors form beliefs about future price changes in the stock market by extrapolating past price changes, while other inves...

This paper investigates how and to what extent institutional development influences and permits firm-specific information to be incorporated into share prices, as measured by stock price synchronicity. Tracing the experience of China, an economy undergoing dramatic changes in the last 20 years with rich variation in experiences across provinces, this paper reveals that stock price synchronicity...

This paper aims to apply the neuro-fuzzy technique to refine the Stochastics technical trading rules to forecast the Asian stock market. Essentially in this hybrid technique, fuzzy logic plays the role to formulate the relationship among the Stochastics indicators and stock price changes by using knowledge base. Neural networking is used to tune the formulated knowledge base based on historical...

In this paper we introduce a decomposition of the joint distribution of price changes of assets recorded trade–by–trade. Our decomposition means that we can model the dynamics of price changes using quite simple and interpretable models which are easily extended in a great number of directions, including using durations and volume as explanatory variables. Thus we provide an econometric basis f...

Generally, high oil prices slow economic growth, cause inflationary pressures and creates global imbalances. In addition, oil price volatility increase uncertainty and restrain the much-needed investment in the capital market. Thus, this paper applies the Augmented Dickey Fuller and Johansen Co-integration Tests in which the effect of oil price volatility, crude oil price and stock price is ana...

today, stock investment has become an important mean of national finance. apparently, it is significant for investors to estimate the stock price and select the trading chance accurately in advance, which will bring high return to stockholders. in the past, long-term trading processes and many technical analysis methods for stock market were put forward. however, stock market is a nonlinear sys...

We propose a dynamically consistent framework that allows joint valuation and estimation of stock options and credit default swaps written on the same reference company. We model default as controlled by a Poisson process with a stochastic default arrival rate. When default occurs, the stock price drops to zero. Prior to default, the stock price follows a continuous process with stochastic vola...