This paper shows the macroeconomic and welfare implications of an aging population in the United States, using a heterogeneous-agent overlapping-generations model with uninsurable idiosyncratic working ability shocks and mortality shocks. The model uses three population projections in Social Security Administration (2003), and generates economies as equilibrium transition paths from 1961 to 220...

â â â â  libya experienced a substantial increase in oil revenue as a result of increased oil prices during the period of the late 1970s and early 1980s, and again after 2000. recent increases in oil production and the price of oil, and their positive and negative macroeconomic impacts upon key macroeconomic variables, are of considerable contemporary importance to an oil dependent economy such...

Why is GDP growth so much more volatile in poor countries than in rich ones? We identify four possible reasons: (i) poor countries specialize in more volatile sectors; (ii) poor countries specialize in fewer sectors; (iii) poor countries experience more frequent and more severe aggregate shocks (e.g. from macroeconomic policy); and (iv) poor countries' macroeconomic fluctuations are more highly...

In terms of regulatory and economic capital, credit risk is the most signi…cant risk faced by banks. We implement a credit risk model –based on publicly available information – with the aim of developing a tool to monitor credit risk in a sample of large and complex banking groups (LCBGs) in the EU. The results indicate varying credit risk pro…les across these LCBGs and over time. Furthermore, ...

This paper provides a complete analytical characterization of the positive and normative effects of alternative exchange rate regimes in a simple two-country sticky-price dynamic general equilibrium model with money, technology, and government spending shocks. A central question addressed is whether fixing the exchange rate prevents macroeconomic adjustment in relative prices from occurring, in...

One of the striking features of the business cycles is the patterns of co-movement of output, inflation, interest rates, and real equity prices across countries. This paper empirically examines the effects of domestic and foreign monetary policies on Iranchr('39')s macroeconomic variables (including real production, inflation, short-term interest rate, and real exchange rate) using quarterly da...

This paper analyses the macroeconomic content of 15 PRSPs from a growth and poverty reduction perspective. It finds that, in the main and contrary to new trends in developed and middle income countries, their macroeconomic policy frameworks lack the necessary flexibility to deal with external shocks and to appropriately address macroeconomic volatility. To ilustrate the point, their fiscal and ...