In this paper the asymptotic properties of ARMA processes with complex-conjugate unit roots in the AR lag polynomial are studied. These processes behave quite di¤erently from regular unit root processes (with a single root equal to 1). In particular, the asymptotic properties of a standardized version of the periodogram for such processes are analyzed, and a nonparametric test of the complex un...

This note outlines and discusses some of the strands in the post-Keynesian literature on business cycles. Most post-Keynesians have focused on endogenously generated cycles, but the mechanism varies: some focus on the goods market, others on financial markets, the labor market, or political intervention. The merits of formal modeling of the cycles have also come in for debate. 1 A slightly vers...

Abstract We estimate the dynamic causal effects of consumer sentiment shocks in US. identify autonomous changes survey evidence on confidence using fatalities mass shootings as an instrument. find instrument to be significant for aggregate index expectations and also back up identification scheme with micro that exploits geographical variation shootings. Sentiment have real macroeconomic effect...

Recessions are associated with sharp increases in turbulence that reshuffles firms' productivity rankings. To study the business cycle implications of shocks, we use Compustat data to construct a measure based on (inverse of) Spearman correlations rankings between adjacent years. We document evidence rises recessions, reallocating labor and capital from high-to low-productivity firms reducing a...

Managers engage in income smoothing either to communicate private information about future earnings to investors (informativeness hypothesis) or to distort financial performance for opportunistic purposes (opportunism hypothesis). Business cycles and the monitoring role of institutional ownership may affect the earnings informativeness of income smoothing. The purpose of this research is to exa...

Real Business Cycles are often studied in the context of the general equlibrium framework with competitive markets, flexible wages and prices. This restricts the effective application of intertemporal models to the real world business cycles. Stickiness of wages and prices have been considered in recent monopolistic competition models. In this paper, we go a step further and separate labor supp...