This paper uses the European Commission’s Consumer Survey to assess whether inflation expectations have converged and whether inflation uncertainty has diminished following the introduction of the Euro in Europe. Consumers’ responses to the survey suggest that inflation expectations depend more on past national inflation rates than on the ECB’s anchor for price stability. The convergence in inf...

Here we investigate the existence of credit in a cash-in-advance economy where there are complete markets but for the fact that agents cannot commit to repay their debts. Defectors are banned from the credit market but they can use money balances for saving purposes. Without uncertainty, deflation crowds out credit completely. The equilibrium allocation, however, is efficient if the government ...

Increases in uncertainty have ambiguous effects on the rate of investment in complete contracts models. Consequently, in order to model the adverse effects of high inflation on capital accumulation, macro models overimpose a CIA constraint to buy capital goods. The fall in investment is thus due to an increase in the effective price of capital goods, and not due to inflation uncertainty. In inc...

this paper tries to survey and estimate non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (nairu) and potential output. it uses the unobserved components model to propose a new method. the model consists of ukan law equations and philips curve. it uses unobservable key economic variable in the form of unobserved random trends in an equation system of three variables namely unemployment, gross dom...

Experts believe that by lowering the interest rate on bank accounts, total cost of goods and services decreases, and secondly, investment production increases,  both of which lead to lower inflation and provide stable employment field, on the other hand, are concerned about the negative effects of lowering the interest rate without lowering inflation and know the underlying requirement of nomin...

Empirical evidence suggests that the instrument rule describing the interest rate setting behavior of the Federal Reserve is non-linear. This paper shows that optimal monetary policy under parameter uncertainty can motivate this pattern. If the central bank is uncertain about the slope of the Phillips curve and follows a min-max strategy to formulate policy, the interest rate reacts more strong...