Proper use of climatic forecast information in planning and implementing agricultural activities is critical for the improvement of the wellbeing of smallholder farmers whose livelihoods depend on rain-fed agriculture. This study employed a descriptive cross-sectional design involving 12 focus group discussions and 255 household interviews to determine the extent to which smallholder farmers in...

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s Statistical seasonal climate forecasting in Australia: An historical overview Dr Roger Stone......................................................................................................................................................................................18 The scientific basis of seasonal climate prediction Dr Scott Power.......................................................

We propose to employ a seamless empirical dynamical modeling approach to construct a state-of-the-art benchmark probabilistic forecast system and to evaluate factors impacting predictability at forecast lead times ranging from weeks to decades in the CFS2 forecast system, including climate drift. The model used, a linear inverse model (LIM) derived from observed simultaneous and time-lag correl...

A predictability framework, based on relative entropy, is applied here to low-frequency variability in a standard T21 barotropic model on the sphere with realistic orography. Two types of realistic climatology, corresponding to different heights in the troposphere, are used. The two dynamical regimes with different mixing properties, induced by the two types of climate, allow the testing of the...

Abstract. Despite the wealth of existing climate forecast data, only a small part is effectively exploited for sectoral applications. A major cause this lack integrated tools that allow translation data into useful and skillful information. This barrier addressed through development an R package. Climate Services Toolbox (CSTools) easy-to-use toolbox designed built to assess improve quality for...

In order to meet policy makers’ need for climate forecasts, this paper extends the application of evidence-based forecasting of global mean temperatures. The extensions utilize more years of global mean temperature data and 34 years of better data. Forecasts from the no-trend model were compared with forecasts from six moresophisticated methods that take account of more than the most recent dat...

Climate models are seen by many to be unverifiable. However, near-term climate predictions up to 10 years into the future carried out recently with these models can be rigorously verified against observations. Near-term climate prediction is a new information tool for the climate adaptation and service communities, which often make decisions on near-term time scales, and for which the most basi...