Time series forecasting has a long track record in many application areas. In forecasting research, it has been illustrated that finding an individual algorithm that works best for all possible scenarios is hopeless. Therefore, instead of striving to design a single superior algorithm, current research efforts have shifted towards gaining a deeper understanding of the reasons a forecasting meth...

We derive generalization error bounds for traditional time-series forecasting models. Our results hold for many standard forecasting tools including autoregressive models, moving average models, and, more generally, linear state-space models. These non-asymptotic bounds need only weak assumptions on the data-generating process, yet allow forecasters to select among competing models and to guara...

We derive generalization error bounds — bounds on the expected inaccuracy of the predictions — for traditional time series forecasting models. Our results hold for many standard forecasting tools including autoregressive models, moving average models, and, more generally, linear state-space models. These bounds allow forecasters to select among competing models and to guarantee that with high p...

in this paper, i develop three forecasting models: namely structural, times series, and artificial neural networks; to forecast iranian inflation rates. the structural model uses aggregate demand and aggregate supply approach, the time series model is based on the standard arlma technique, and the artificial neural network applies multi-layer back propagation model the latter, which is rooted i...

In this paper, a comparison study is presented on artificial intelligence and time series models in 1-hour-ahead wind speed forecasting. Three types of typical neural networks, namely adaptive linear element, multilayer perceptrons, and radial basis function, and ARMA time series model are investigated. The wind speed data used are the hourly mean wind speed data collected at Binalood site in I...

Forecasting is the starting point for drawing good strategies facing the demand variability in the increasingly complex and competitive today's markets. This article discusses two methods of dealing with demand variability in seasonal time series using artificial neural networks (ANN). First a multilayer perceptron model for time series forecasting is proposed. Several learning rules used ...

In recent years, various time series models have been proposed for financial markets forecasting. In each case, the accuracy of time series forecasting models are fundamental to make decision and hence the research for improving the effectiveness of forecasting models have been curried on. Many researchers have compared different time series models together in order to determine more efficient ...

Demands of customers for products and of the production for parts are being forecasted quite often in companies. The results are used extensively within the operational production planning and control by IT Systems like the SAP system. Hereby preferably methods based on exponential smoothing are being applied. Especially, in industrial practice it is expected that the pattern of the data change...