In this paper we present a number of recent applications in which an emulator of a computer code is created using a Gaussian process model. Tools are then applied to the emulator to perform sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis. Sensitivity analysis is used both as an aid to model improvement and as a guide to how much the output uncertainty might be reduced by learning about specific i...

rainfall-runoff modeling is most important component in the water resource management of river basins. the successful application of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model depends on how well it is calibrated. the degree of difficulty in solving the global optimization method is generally dependent on the dimensionality of the model and certain of the characteristics of object function. the purpose...

Kinetic modeling is the tool of choice when developing new positron emission tomography (PET) tracers for quantitative functional analysis. Several approaches are widely used to facilitate this process. While all these approaches are inherently different, they are still subject to uncertainty arising from various stages of the modeling process. In this paper we propose a novel approach for deri...

most of the analyses and modeling concerning the mountain physical and human environmental changes have been based on theoretical speculation rather than scientific field observations. lack of standard observations and measurements in scattered and case specific monitoring programs offer only partially useful results for planning and management. all propositions and conclusions are hence mingle...

One of the important challenges in Graphical models is the problem of dealing with the uncertainties in the problem. Among graphical networks, fuzzy cognitive map is only capable of modeling fuzzy uncertainty and the Bayesian network is only capable of modeling probabilistic uncertainty. In many real issues, we are faced with both fuzzy and probabilistic uncertainties. In these cases, the propo...

in many practical distribution networks, managers face significant uncertainties in demand, local price of building facilities, transportation cost, and macro and microeconomic parameters. this paper addresses design of distribution networks in a supply chain system which optimizes the performance of distribution networks subject to required service level. this service level, which is considere...

This paper starts with the description of the modeling process as a dialog, and describes the associated formal functions, including the feedback supporting the growing mutual understanding. The dialog has a procedural and an informational aspect. For this latter a controlled grammar is used, that has a user friendly and a system friendly side. These sides are related via an elementary syntacti...