In this paper, we propose a new residual analysis method using Fourier series transform into fuzzy time series model for improving the forecasting performance. This hybrid model takes advantage of the high predictable power of fuzzy time series model and Fourier series transform to fit the estimated residuals into frequency spectra, select the low-frequency terms, filter out high-frequency term...

Considering the fact that natural gas is a widely used energy source,  the prediction of its consumption can be useful (Derek LAM, 2013). As Iran has one of the largest gas reserves in the world, its consumption in the country can affect the worldwide price of gas, Therefore, the current research is useful both from economic and environmental point of view. ...

conspicuously enough, millennium development goals (un-mdg) indexes cover the various aspects of economic development in countries. indeed, mdgs are collected from the world bank and the imf indexes that were used for monitoring economics status. every member of the un is subjected to report the required data in former designed format and frequency. furthermore reported data and usage of indexe...

In this article, a special type of orthogonalization is obtained to construct a multiple input transfer function model. By using this technique, construction of a transfer function model is divided to sequential construction of transfer function models with less input time series. Furthermore, based on real and simulated time series we provide an instruction to adequately perform the stages of ...

In this paper, one of the most important criterion in public services quality named availability is evaluated by using artificial neural network (ANN). In addition, the availability values are predicted for future periods by using exponential weighted moving average (EWMA) scheme and some time series models (TSM) including autoregressive (AR), moving average (MA) and autoregressive moving avera...

In this paper, we show that the Chapman-Kolmogorov formula could be used as a recursive formula for computing the m-step-ahead conditional density of a Markov bilinear model. The stationary marginal probability density function of the model may be approximated by the m-step-ahead conditional density for sufficiently large m.

comparison of linear and nonlinear (bilinear) time series models in reference crop evapotranspiration prediction in urmia synoptic stationreference crop evapotranspiration (eto) prediction is one of the important elements in optimizing agricultural water consumption. in this regard, one of the prediction approaches is to use the stochastic time series methods. in this research, ar (p) and arma(...

In this paper, a comparison study is presented on artificial intelligence and time series models in 1-hour-ahead wind speed forecasting. Three types of typical neural networks, namely adaptive linear element, multilayer perceptrons, and radial basis function, and ARMA time series model are investigated. The wind speed data used are the hourly mean wind speed data collected at Binalood site in I...

understanding the genetic regulatory networks, the discovery of interactions between genes, and understanding regulatory processes in a cell at the gene level, is one of the major goals of system biology and computational biology. modeling gene regulatory networks, describing the actions of the cells at the molecular level and is used in medicine and molecular biology applications such as metab...