Using forecasts from Consensus Economics Inc., we provide evidence on the efficiency of real GDP growth forecasts by testing if forecast revisions are uncorrelated. As the forecast data used are multi-dimensional—18 countries, 24 monthly forecasts for the current and the following year and 16 target years—the panel estimation takes into account the complex structure of the variance covariance m...

This paper provides a learning justification for limited forecast equilibria, i.e., Ž . strategy profiles such that 1 players choose their actions in order to maximize the discounted average payoff over their horizon of foresight as given by their forecasts Ž . and 2 forecasts are correct on and off the equilibrium path. The limited forecast equilibria appear to be the stochastically stable out...

We apply multivariate statistical methods to a large dataset of Singapore’s macroeconomic variables and global economic indicators with the objective of forecasting business cycles in a small open economy. The empirical results suggest that three common factors are present in the time series at the quarterly frequency, which can be interpreted as world, regional and domestic economic cycles. Th...

ƒ In addition to accurate forecasts of the price of oil, policy-makers are interested in evaluating the risks associated with the baseline forecast to gauge the implications of alternative oil price paths for the economic outlook. A structural model of the global oil market can be used to develop risk scenarios for oil price forecasts, based on hypothetical assumptions about future demand and s...

The numerical forecasts made in 1950 using the Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer (ENIAC) paved the way for the remarkable advances that have been made over the past half-century in weather prediction and climate modeling. We review the circumstances in which the forecasts were made, the nature of the ENIAC machine, and the roles of the people involved. The basis for the forecasts was...

1024x768 normal 0 false false false en-us x-none ar-sa background and objective: numerical modeling of biological structures would be very helpful tool to analyze hundreds of human body phenomena and also diseases diagnosis. one physiologic phenomenon is blood circulatory system and heart hemodynamic performance that can be simulated by utilizing lumped method. in this study, we can predict hem...

Expert forecasts of quantitative variables in the form of continuous subjective probability distributions are more useful to decision makers than are point estimates or confidence intervals. We present 2 experiments using participants recruited via the Internet aimed at (a) developing methods for estimating and modeling continuous subjective distributions from small numbers of judgments, and (b...

Nicholas Barbon’s A discourse of trade presents, in its construction, substance, and rhetoric, an early outline of a new science of the legislator for the new politics of commerce. Barbon drew together economic and political arguments, applying insights from the latter to a new understanding of the political potential of the former. His accounts of the aspect of infinity in economic growth, his...