This paper describes an econometric investigation of the effects of population growth on the growth of output. A structural model yields an equation expressing output growth as a function of both demographic and nondemographic variables. This equation is estimated from data on 142 six-year growth periods in 85 countries at all levels of per capita output. Higher fertility is found to lower outp...

Over the coming century, computer technology is likely to become capable of reproducing many of the skills now performed by human labor. This paper describes three models of the aggregate economic changes that occur when capital becomes capable of performing human work skills. The basic model, with a single sector and homogeneous labor, projects output growth rates over the next few decades tha...

This work explores some distributional properties of aggregate output growth-rate time series. We show that, in the majority of OECD countries, output growth-rate distributions are well-approximated by symmetric exponential-power densities with tails much fatter than those of a Gaussian. Fat tails robustly emerge in output growth rates independently of: (i) the way we measure aggregate output; ...

Following the recent analysis of Lucas and Rossi-Hansberg [10], we study the equilibrium structure of cities. By adopting a different (monetary) specification of commuting costs, we are able to prove the existence of equilibrium in more general situations: non-circular cities, or multi-sectorial production. The main mathematical tool in this paper is the use of optimal transportation theory. Th...

Urban areas are complex systems, comprising many interacting infrastructure sectors. Understanding these inter-relationships is essential to sustainable urban and infrastructure development. Research focused on single sectors, or over limited timescales, will inevitably fail to capture these interdependencies and dynamics. Consequently this project is carrying out work to investigate these sect...