accurate forecasting of streamflows has been one of the most important issues as it plays a key role in allotment of water resources. river flow simulations to determine the future river flows are important and practical. given the importance of flow in the coming years, in this research three stations: haji qooshan, ghare shoor and tamar in gorganrood cachment were simulated in 2002-2011. to s...

in order to investigate the effects of  management models on the diversity of wooden species, forests of third series of shiler, the first division mehrbanrud watershed and third and fourth series of eight division of behshahr – neka townships were studied with participatory and governmental management respectively. the diversity of the wooden species have been evaluated by diversity parametric...

Background Road traffic accidents and their related deaths have become a major concern, particularly in developing countries. Iran has adopted a series of policies and interventions to control the high number of accidents occurring over the past few years. In this study we used a time series model to understand the trend of accidents, and ascertain the viability of applying ARIMA models on data...

Model identification is an important and complicated step within the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) methodology framework. This step is especially difficult for integrated series. In this article first investigate Box-Jenkins methodology and its faults in detecting model, and hence have discussed the problem of outliers in time series. By using this optimization method, we wil...

comparison of linear and nonlinear (bilinear) time series models in reference crop evapotranspiration prediction in urmia synoptic stationreference crop evapotranspiration (eto) prediction is one of the important elements in optimizing agricultural water consumption. in this regard, one of the prediction approaches is to use the stochastic time series methods. in this research, ar (p) and arma(...

introduction: accurate water demand modeling for the city is very important for forecasting and policies adoption related to water resources management. thus, for future requirements of water estimation, forecasting and modeling, it is important to utilize models with little errors. water has a special place among the basic human needs, because it not hampers human life. the importance of the i...

fuzzy set based methods have been proved to be effective in handling many types of uncertainties in different fields, including reliability engineering. this paper presents a new approach on fuzzy reliability, based on the use of beta type distribution as membership function. considering experts' ideas and by asking operators linguistic variables, a rule base is designed to determine the level ...