As a knowledge representation and reasoning (KRR) system gathers and reasons about information, it has to update its belief space to maintain consistency. Some belief change operations it can perform include expansion (addition with no consistency checking), contraction (aka removal or retraction), revision (consistent prioritized addition), and consolidation (elimination of any and all inconsi...

In this paper, the concept of Conjectural Variation (CV) is used to specify optimal generation decision for generation companies (Gencos). The conjecture of Genco is defined as its belief or expectation about the reaction of rivals to change of its output. Using CV method, each Genco has to learn and estimate strategic behaviors of other competitors from available historical market operation da...

In this paper we define the class of consistent belief functions as the counterparts of consistent knowledge bases in classical logic. We prove that such class can be defined univocally no matter our definition of proposition implied by a belief function. As consistency can be desirable in decision making, the problem of transforming an arbitrary belief function into a consistent one arise, and...

In this paper I discuss the problem of providing an account of the normative force of theories of rationality. The theories considered are theories of rational inference, rational belief and rational decision— logic, probability theory and decision theory, respectively. I provide a naturalistic account of the normativity of these theories that is not viciously circular. The account offered does...

This study aimed to develop a model for predicting the impact of information access using Web searches, on human decision making. Models were constructed using a database of search behaviors and decisions of 75 clin-icians, who answered questions about eight scenarios within 80 minutes in a controlled setting at a university computer laboratory. Bayesian models were developed with and without b...

In an uncertain and ambiguous world, effective decision making requires that subjects form and maintain a belief about the correctness of their choices, a process called meta-cognition. Prediction of future outcomes and self-monitoring are only effective if belief closely matches behavioral performance. Equality between belief and performance is also critical for experimentalists to gain insigh...

A recent computational model argues that people’s beliefs arise from two basic sources: a motivation to be accurate plus other forms of such as pursuing economic interests. Yet, this previous proposal has focused exclusively on the individual level analysis, neglecting question how social contexts shape belief formation. The present paper addresses by examining group dynamics underpin formation...