Futures contract is one of the most important derivatives that is used in financial markets in all over the world to buy or sell an asset or commodity in the future. Pricing of this tool depends on expected price of asset or commodity at the maturity date. According to this, theoretical futures pricing models try to find this expected price in order to use in the futures contract. So in this ar...

In this study, the aim is to propose a new method for fuzzification of nested dummy variables. The fuzzification idea of dummy variables has been acquired from non-linear part of regime switching models in econometrics. In these models, the concept of transfer functions is like the notion of fuzzy membership functions, but no principle or linguistic sentence have been used for inputs. Consequen...

a r t i c l e i n f o Keywords: Electricity spot price Spikes Markov regime-switching Heteroscedasticity Inverse leverage effect One of the most profound features of electricity spot prices are the price spikes. Markov regime-switching (MRS) models seem to be a natural candidate for modeling this spiky behavior. However, in the studies published so far, the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model...

  This paper aimed at estimation of the per capita consumption of electricity in residential sector based on economic indicators in Iran. The Genetic Algorithm Electricity Demand Model (GAEDM) was developed based on the past data using the genetic algorithm approach (GAA). The economic indicators used during the model development include: gross domestic product (GDP) in terms of per capita and ...

In this paper we propose a new and highly tractable structural approach to spot price modeling and derivative pricing in electricity markets, thus extending the growing branch of literature which describes power price dynamics via its primary supply and demand factors. Using a bid stack approach, our model translates the demand for power and the prices of fuels, used in the power generation pro...