s tructural change is defined as a change in the relative weight of the important constituents of the macro-economic indicator such as production, taxes, imports and exports, workforce etc. since the structure change is one of the main reasons for the growth and economic development of countries, the investigation of the trend of changes in economic important constituents is important. tax as a...

In a recent article, Bai and Perron (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics) present a comprehensive discussion of computational aspects of multiple structural change models along with several empirical examples. Here, we report on the results of a replication study using the R statistical software package. We are able to verify most of their findings; however, some confidence intervals associat...

This special issue deals with problems related to unit roots and structural change, and the interplay between the two. The research agenda dealing with these topics have proven to be of importance for devising procedures that are reliable for inference and forecasting. Several important contributions have been made. Still, there is scope for improvements and analyses of the properties of existi...

This paper explores the feature of business cycle across breaks in Taiwan and Korea. We employed tests devised by Bai and Perron (2003) to show that, for Taiwan’s business cycle, two breaks are present. In contrast, one break is revealed in the economic restructuring process in Korea. Moreover, the feature of business cycle process across breaks is congruent with the real business cycle theory.

Despite mounting empirical evidence to the contrary, the literature on predictability of stock returns almost uniformly assumes a time-invariant relationship between state variables and returns. In this paper we propose a two-stage approach for forecasting of financial return series that are subject to breaks. The first stage adopts a reversed ordered Cusum (ROC) procedure to determine in real ...

In this paper, we examine the structural stability of predictive regression models of quarterly real stock returns over the postwar era. We consider predictive regressions models of S&P 500 and CRSP equal-weighted real stock returns based on eight financial variables that display predictive ability in the extant literature. We test for structural stability using the popular Andrews (1993) SupF ...